By Joel Kruger, technical strategist 21 October 2010 05: 39 GMT 
after the sell-off in Wednesday trading the US dollar has found some renewed bids in the Thursday and the increased risk from here for more USD appreciation ahead we still see. The current slide in the greenback is corrective and we claim that already did Bock, a carve out material short-term down against most major currencies. Technical studies show plenty of room for additional U.S. dollar gains while foundations even after the latest onslaught of QD a bearish and bullish USD comments by US officials are.
The most important comment over the last few hours has coming Treasury Secretary Geithner says he does not believe there is no need for the US dollar against the yen and the euro falling. Although the markets have already responded with the fast USD rise in post comment negates now we continue with the Minister of finance be surprised last week, after he already reinforced and now certain his language on a strong US dollar policy references at current exchange rates. This is most role for the Finance Minister with the Government, which usually take another "no comment/laissez faire" politics in the US dollar. As such we can only assume that it more a warning signals behind this latest comments with the Minister of finance may send the markets should not necessarily expect another round of quantitative easing the fed, or at least did not expect that the level of accommodation which was in pricing have. Comments from fed this week, seem to support this view with fed Plosser coming out with a firm stance against the implementation of additional quantitative easing measures, say that it would be better for the FOMC "disappoint officials the markets" and focus instead on its long-term objectives. Fed Plosser is very concerned with the longer-term inflationary impact of such monetary policy measures akkommodierenden ultra and sees the larger risk for upside pressure on inflation. Meanwhile was fed Lacker also out say it is difficult to make a case for QE2. Lacker however admit that he is willing to keep an open mind. However, whether there has been direct or indirect, it seems to be a major push the USD$ in the last several days, to defend with references to uncertainty about the need for the QE2 and more specific references to the most recent weakness in the buck. While we recognize that this leads only official rhetoric, more than often not little weight in a market that is more inclined to action and talk to respond, must be on such things some degree of seriousness hit, comments by US officials who usually do not extend. After all, sold nor the markets also easy USD aggressive late on the expectation for QE2? If it does, we believe that no official statements that would otherwise suggest should not taken are easy. Keep in mind that the language in the monetary policy statement says "if necessary." On the data front focus on China, won the latest round of data coming in largely as expected. Although GDP managed to come just a bit firmer, was still significantly lower than the previous print the result. There were some growing concerns about the potential for large cooling off in the Chinese economy that will trigger a further slowdown in the global economy and we are in the camp that thinks this is a real possibility. In this case the currencies will yield most endangered the commodity currencies with the higher and high Australian correlated dollar seen, where the biggest hit. Disappointed in New Zealand consumer confidence while credit card expenses.
BLOOM mountain looking ahead, Swiss trade balance (1.20B expected) is due 15GMT, followed by Swiss money 7: out at 6: 00GMT. Euro area and German manufacturing and services PMI data (EZ 53,2 and 53 7expected / GE expected 54,6 and 54.9) out at 7: are 30GMT, then with UK mortgage approvals (44 k expected) and retail sales (expected 0.2%) shortly after 8: 30GMT due. The Swiss ZEW then caps things the European calendar at 9: 00GMT. U.S. equity futures and commodity prices are below tracking in the European public.Posted by Joel Kruger, technical currency strategist if in time to get more, Joel reports save add e-Mail jskruger@fxcm.com and to the distribution list you this or any other topic-feel free to visit our forum page want to discuss.
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21 October 2010 05: 39 GMT
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